Challenges of Current Population Upswing

'Be fruitful and multiply. Fill the earth…” seems to have been taken very seriously as Ugandan population is estimated to be at 30.9 million. The United Nations Population Fund report in the New Vision on the 27th June, got me thinking how fertile the Ugandan population is. The said 7.1 births per woman is an explosive figure in a contemporary society. Though, this is a good sign of a healthy population, some issues need be addressed.

How will an estimated population of 130 million people by the year 2030 be taken care of? The dependent population, which accounts for the 50.4% of the total population is in itself a dependency burden. The population explosion as seen in the current growth rate of 3.6%, the world’s second largest after Burundi's 3.7%, will yield over-dependence burden on the economic muscle of the households and the government. The land, natural resources, infrastructure, social institutions like schools and hospitals will surely reek from the overweight of over-dependence and exploitation by the colossal population.

Households with bigger numbers of children cater for will no doubt be relegated to more impoverished status. Their capacity to save and invest will be constrained due to over-strain on their incomes. Heavy government expenditure on the needs of its colossal population, for instance, education, health care, infrastructure and security is limited. This puts the national resources at the risk of quick depletion, with the numerous needs of the population still unmet. The government capacity to save and invest in the economy is also hampered.

With the 3.6% population growth, the Millennium Development Goals will be far from reach. The immense needs of the big population become a pipe dream on which our development aspirations face their death.

With the population of 130 million people at 2030, how is the government going to provide and sustain the Universal Primary Education and the Universal Secondary Education?

The current and obvious trend in economic development and growth shows that reduced population growth complements sustainable development. The developed countries boast of the most minimal or relatively negative population growth and sounding economies. The dependent population is about 25% of the total population. The economically active and productive population constitutes the largest portion of the population. This reflects minimal dependency syndrome.

In order to address the challenges of population upswing, the government needs to reinforce mechanisms like education of the masses on the importance of population regulation, education and economic empowerment of women. People driven laws and policies need be formulated to set the maximum number of children a family should have. Raising the minimum matrimony age for girls from sixteen should be considered. Family planning methods should be encouraged. Religious leaders should have a stake in this in the case of Catholicism which does not condone birth control methods. The high costs incurred in family planning should be addressed. Above all, cultural practices like polygamy should be discouraged.

With all these in place, come 2030, the Ugandan population might still be 31 million rather than the projected 130 million!

Joshua Masinde